← Store Champs @ Sinners Refuge
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Store Champs @ Sinners Refuge
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.5%
avg ELO -4.2 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1168
· median 1168
· range 1168–1168
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1149
Q3 1393
1507
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Genbu | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Razorgale | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
